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"content" : "[applause] Thank you Julie for the very nice [noise] comment. [noise] #erm [noise] [no-speech] I'm very honored [cough] to be speaking at the Dean's lecture"
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"content" : "tonight and #ah [noise] thank you to Julie for the invitation [noise] and to Piyush Tiwari [noise] for your support [breath] and also your colleagues in administration"
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"content" : "who put in a lot of efforts to [noise] organize this trip [noise] for me down to the last detail, [breath] like providing me a car to take the tram [no-speech] from Collin street to the campus."
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"content" : "That's planning for you. This is part of the school [laugh] planning. [breath] Now, there's one other person I have to thank and who is very instrumental in getting me here, [breath] and he is my old [noise] mate, Peter Holland."
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"content" : "And old is the operative word. [laugh] #ah, Peter, as you know, is the #ah chairman of the property advisory board here, [breath] and he broached the subject of [noise] doing this [click]"
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"content" : "about eighteen probably about eighteen months ago. [breath] Unfortunately, I couldn't do it the first time [breath] and I thought that was it. [noise] But he came back and made me an offer I couldn't refuse,"
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"content" : "#ah, including throwing in some goodies. Like, oh, let's spend a weekend. We go have some, [breath] ((visit)) some winery in the Mornington Peninsula, play some golf. [noise] Guess what, things changed my schedule, this one is not his fault though. My schedule changed"
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"content" : "and I could only come for three days and everything's got compressed. So you got away with it. [no-speech] Thank you Peter for that. [breath] So, [cough] [breath]"
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"content" : "you know, it's always nice to #ah return to Australia and some of you would know that I lived here for a long time, [breath] almost twenty years ago, but that was a long time ago, and that, #ah, [breath] I never really had a chance"
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"content" : "to live in Melbourne. I lived in the other big smoke [noise] and #ah, some would say a bigger smoke and just call Sydney. [click] But I make a lot of trips here on business when we here and [noise] couple of my old colleagues and friends are"
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"content" : "sitting now, they're grinning at me. [breath] #erm So [breath] it's wonderful to be back. [breath] It's actually in Sydney that I started my property career with Jones Lang Wootton. [breath] #ah That was almost,"
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"content" : "almost forty years ago, not quite [breath] and that was after a a short sting trying to be an academic, #erm and necessarily the re~ the rest is history. [noise] [breath] So I've been fortunate"
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"content" : "that my career spent a period of time [noise] where the industry underwent some fundamental changes, [breath] and of course I learned a great deal from it. So today, [cough] [breath]"
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"content" : "tonight I wish to share with you a, #erm, a perspective of how the industry evolved over time, over the last forty years, [breath] and then [noise] to share with you some thoughts [breath] about"
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"content" : "what the future might hold, right? So, [noise] #ah"
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"content" : "right, so, so [noise] basically I'm going to try to answer two questions and that's the outline [noise] of what I'm going to speak about tonight. [breath] [click] So the first question is what are the"
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"content" : "transformative changes in the last forty years that shaped the global real estate industry? [noise] The second question is a futuristic question is, [breath] what the macro forces and trends [breath]"
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"content" : "that we are currently witnessing [noise] fundamentally changed the real estate business as we know it now? [noise] [breath] In the early years,"
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"content" : "the industry was relatively simple, that's forty years ago. [breath] Looking back when I first started my career, [lipsmack] [breath] the single biggest difference I guess is the word choice."
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"content" : "Choice from every standpoint, not just from a career standpoint. [breath] The, the, the career choices then were very narrow. [breath] Now, you have a wide range of career,"
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"content" : "but also in terms of the range of products out there in the market, [breath] the investment vehicles, the platforms or the different sources of capital [breath] and that explains why there's a wide range of career for people with property background."
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"content" : "[lipsmack] [breath] Now, [noise] #erm [noise] let me ju- [noise] so looking back, where basically I picked up three big [noise] game changing [breath] development"
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"content" : "and the first is [breath] that real estate became a strategic asset class [breath] and an institutional portfolio. So [breath] it moves from #ah basically an only occupied market"
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"content" : "too and it having an investment market globally. I'll come I'll go through each one of these later on in a little bit of detail [breath] and this next big change is the integration of real estate with the property, with the capital markets,"
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"content" : "moving from bricks-and-mortar to finance [breath] and the third big change is the internationalization of real estate, [breath] transforming from a domestically focused market. In fact, most markets around the world"
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"content" : "were very domestic focus [breath] to a global business. [breath] There is actually a fourth factor, which is more an enabling factor. [breath] During during this period,"
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"content" : "I was improving quality of information and without that, [breath] much of the changes that we're seeing through these three, [noise] #ah, developments that I talk about would not have happened, because you needed quality information [breath]"
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"content" : "for the institution to be able to measure performance. [breath] So those were the changes. Some of these changes were [breath] in response to new opportunities and market developments. [breath]"
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"content" : "Others were adaptation to severe market upheavals and traumas, [breath] which the industry has to endure during this period. So it's not all blue sky in the last forty years. [breath] Now, [noise] so"
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"content" : "let me go through [no-speech] #ah, well before I say that that of course the question of data will come back up later on when we talk about technology. [breath] Now, we're entering a different"
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"content" : "era of big data, big data analytics, AI machine learning and so on. They put a new, a new [breath] perspective on how things can change [breath] over time. [click] So let's go through one, each one of these #ah separately. [breath]"
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"content" : "So as I said, [breath] in the beginning, it was very simple industry. [breath] [click] It was mainly, #erm, ((built)) for own occupation, [breath] the, #ah, the"
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"content" : "commercial, here, I'm talking about commercial real estate market of course. [breath] That, #erm, [breath] they were basically own built and #ah [noise] by individuals, families, or corporates for their own use,"
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"content" : "right? And there, #ah, very there was very little institutional participation. [lipsmack] [breath] So in a sense, the real estate market's quite detached from the, the, the, ((I feel like)) from the financial world."
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"content" : "In the nineteen eighties, in, sorry, early seventies as you know, some of you will know that the US or the world went through a period of very high inflation. [breath] So there was this movement in the US"
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"content" : "to use the then CAPM model, the capital asset pricing model [breath] to push for the inclusion [click] of real estate as a asset class in an institutional portfolio. [breath] So the traditional"
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"content" : "classes were fixed income or we call them bonds [breath] and public equities, [noise] right? These real estates, infrastructure, PE private equities and [noise] ((so)) called alternative investment classes,"
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"content" : "but up until then, it didn't happen, right? [breath] And the reason behind using CAPM is to say that, [breath] that it plays the role to for diversification of risk and for hedging, #ah, inflation, inflation."
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"content" : "So this was [breath] what th~ this eventually happened, and the the US pension funds investment in commercial real estate grew very rapidly [breath] from only about five billion in the nineteen seventies to two hundred billion"
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"content" : "in the ninetees. There was a forty fold increase. [breath] Now looking at us [noise] right, so this is what has, [breath] so the development institution become market and that's, [noise]"
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"content" : "that happened in the US in a big way, and then it started to [noise] happen in the rest of the world. [noise] In Australia, following the Campbell inquiry, the, #erm,"
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"content" : "that led to a progressive [breath] deregulation of financial market in the eighties and the nineties, [breath] and #ah, [breath] that led to [noise] a growth in institutional investment in real estate."
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"content" : "But the problem here is that when there's too much of a good thing, when there's a lot of money flowing [breath] into any sector, [breath] you start to see some negative things coming out. So that not just in Australia [noise] but"
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"content" : "particularly the US and UK in a lot of developed market, it led to one of the [noise] worst recession in a commercial real estate market [noise] around the world, [noise] especially the Optimus markets, [noise] and this was [noise] a big [noise] problem [click]"
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"content" : "[noise] around the world. But [noise] the result of all of that, after suffering, in (()) one stage, I remember in early nineties [breath] #ah, there was such a massive over supply of office overhang in Chicago"
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"content" : "that [bg-speech] people were talking about it would take ten years [breath] to absorb the supply, the new supply. [breath] And we had the same problem [breath] in Sydney and Melbourne in the early nineties"
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"content" : "in Australia. I think some of us lived through that period and it was tough. [breath] But like all things, when US there is always a silver lining and this fundamentally changed [breath] how the #eh industry operates."
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"content" : "So, [breath] the~ therefore becomes the higher demand, a demand for higher standards in real estate investment management, [lipsmack] [breath] it which then led to the broadening and deepening of the investment market [lipsmack] [breath] with"
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"content" : "enhanced professionalism, [breath] more rigor in investment analysis and management [breath] and it led to a proliferation of specialist professionals. [breath] I'm talking about [breath] not just the property people,"
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"content" : "but any related profession, whether it's in accounting law, [noise] #ah, [breath] finance, banking and so on, all kinds of #ah specialists and fund managements [noise] and so, [breath] so"
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"content" : "the other thing, of course, there's a #ah continuous improvement in qualitative information [breath] for performance measurement purposes, [breath] and also innovations and new products, which nicely leading to the next"
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"content" : "slide, which is talking about the integration of where the capital market. [breath] [click] Now in the early years, the industry,"
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"content" : "the, the property investment market was simply #eh building, buying an asset and then getting hold it, [breath] collect rent, right? And getting a funding, some of the funding from the banks, [breath] this hasn't changed."
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"content" : "#erm And this, this will continue to be the case. [breath] In a sense, as I said early on, that the property industry sits on its own, [breath] it's not very connected [noise] with the rest of the capital market."
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"content" : "[noise] So the industry has since evolved and #ah innovated and it's become fully integrated. [breath] The, [noise] the, the upheavals in an early nineteen night, #ah, in nineteen nineties,"
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"content" : "as I said early on, was the catalyst [breath] to al~ accelerate this transformation. [breath] The a new ways of doing ((business)) started to, #erm, to emerge."
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"content" : "[lipsmack] [breath] So innovation in the early nineties enabled the equity and debt components [noise] [breath] underl~ in the underlying capital structure of an asset to become tradable,"
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"content" : "right? So now you can trade [noise] equity and debt both in the public and private market [breath] and this led to what's called the four quadrant approach to investment. [breath] In other words, if you look at the four quadrants, [breath]"
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"content" : "you can do it in the public or private market [click] or you can be in debt or equity and as we can see that [noise] the the new products that we take for granted now were then starting to emerge, right?"
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"content" : "What this means is that [lipsmack] [breath] a lot, the the market became more liquid. There's ((so)) much more funds moving into real estate. [noise]"
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"content" : "Now, both the CMBS, which is the commer~ which is #ah Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities was a, [noise] was a great innovation [breath] and REITs, [breath] were innovative solutions [breath] to [noise] alleviate the massive"
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"content" : "nonperforming mo~ loans, [breath] #ah, assets that were during the, when US called it SNL crisis. For those of you who are old enough, you will remember [breath] the saving and loan crisis in the United States,"
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"content" : "and that's in fact is a trigger point for many of these new products (()). [lipsmack] [breath] So the #erm debt market grew very rapidly [click] [breath] and you can see the CMBS became a new source of capital"
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"content" : "and the the more available and higher availability of capital [breath] #eh when the the #h CMBS market became more developed. In fact, [breath] #ah the next slide will show that it"
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"content" : "actually shot up very, very quickly over a span of #ah [breath] #ah about ten years before the GFC killed it all. [noise] So it moved, [breath] as you can see from the graph"
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"content" : "from about five billion dollars to nine~ #ah in nineteen ninety to a peak of two hundred and seventy billion dollars [breath] in twenty oh seven [click] [breath] just before the GFC"
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"content" : "[noise] and #ah then came crushing down [noise] during GFC and it's only just recovered [breath] to around about eighty billion dollars. This is [noise] the CMBS market in the [noise] US."
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"content" : "Now, this market, however, has not been [breath] very developed elsewhere in the world. [noise] And let me go back one, oh [dtmf] but in the meantime, while the public debt market is happening, the private debt market is also"
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"content" : "continuing to #eh to innovate. [breath] So this again another new source of capital, [breath] real estate that is being subdivided into different grades and they become tradable and becoming an investment, [noise] a proper investment vehicle"
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"content" : "for even for institutional investor. [breath] Again, this is something private loan [click] is something [noise] that happened a great and highly developed in the US, [breath] but I only learned that [noise] the so called"
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"content" : "in U, in Australia is called non-bank set sector. [breath] This has only just begun in Australia in the last maybe three or four years, but [breath] in the US this happened since the mid nineties,"
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"content" : "[lipsmack] that's how long has it been and I we can see this market in Australia developing at #ah non-bank sector. [breath] But one concern I have is that"
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"content" : "in a period when you have large amount of liquidity, when interest rates are low, too much of a good thing may increase the risk [breath] of lowering loan standards."
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"content" : "And that would be that could be a major problem if it happens. [breath] #erm So [lipsmack] [breath] now on the equity side, this is the debt side. On the equity side, the,"
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"content" : "the, the game changes [breath] changer were the, was the advent of REIT real estate investment trust, which led to a search [breath] in the securitization of public real estate equity."
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"content" : "Now, although I show you this graph that [noise] REIT [noise] market has been in the US for a long time, [breath] but it really only took off in the early nineties [noise] right when PIMCO"
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"content" : "became the first [breath] one to #ah, to become a REIT in the modern era. [lipsmack] [breath] But Australia has it's first trust,"
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"content" : "the LPT the Listed Property Trust, and that's GPT. It was listed in nineteen seventy-one. [breath] So in many ways, you can say that Australia was ahead of the game then. [noise] But of course in terms of scale, by everything you know, in in America, [breath]"
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"content" : "it just took off and there's a massive scaling up [breath] as this graph shows. [breath] Australia will never be the size in terms of GRIT (()) but at the moment, [breath] this has become, REIT has become a very successful,"
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"content" : "#ah vehicle around the world. [breath] The, the REIT market in terms of scale, #er the US re~ #ah (()) scale is bigger than anybody else [lipsmack] and globally, there are now thirty-seven REIT markets"
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"content" : "[click] with a total market cap of one point seven trillion US dollars, that's the size of it and growing. [breath] We still have new markets yet to open. For example, in China, [breath] India has just started its REIT market. So this is another new avenue. [breath]"
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"content" : "And the reason why it is successful as the vehicle and continue to be so [breath] because it provides greater liquidity. [noise] [breath] It's #ah a new and additional investment vehicle"
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"content" : "and it provides access to commercial real estate for smaller investors [breath] and a vehicle, for asset owners to recycle capital. So that's the reason."
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"content" : "Then, we'll move on to private equity funds and then this is the, the [noise] the area that has been attracting a lot of money in more recent time as well. Again, [breath] this was started at the SNL crisis"
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"content" : "where [noise] it [no-speech] then there were a lot of distress assets. It is another way of pulling funds together [breath] to buy this distressed asset to hold it"
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"content" : "for and [no-speech] value add in some cases and then sell it off [breath] and these are called opportunity funds. [breath] They were all started as opportunity funds, [breath] but over the years,"
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"content" : "they evolved. The private equity funds model evolve and they they moved to value added, what's called value added, which means to say you you do something [breath] to the assets to improve its quality or and then to call,"
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"content" : "which is, which is the which are the prime assets [breath] and then there are specialist funds which are sector specific and in about two thousand, they started [no-speech] to do cross border"
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"content" : "transaction. So the funds have become global as well."
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"content" : "So as you can see from this chart that it the private fund started very slowly. It grew again until just before the GFC [click] and then"
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"content" : "it collapsed to an extent not as bad as the CMBS, [breath] and it just reached another peak in twenty seventeen [breath] and this is a sector that has been attracting a lot of money in recent years."
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"content" : "And the reason being quite unlike why, how it started is because of the low interest rate environment and that institution, [noise] if you looked at"
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"content" : "the low returns they're getting from bonds and equities, [no-speech] the private equity side is in property-owned business, and the, the, the asset class so they can generate in higher return, right?"
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"content" : "So, and that's why they may be attracting a lot of funds. [breath] These days, raising ten billion dollar fund is like a walk in the park for a lot of these big players. [no-speech] Ten years ago to raise a billion dollar, it"
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"content" : "was a big deal. So that's the the change that's happening [breath] to this sector."
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"content" : "[noise] Now [click] I want to move [noise] now to globalization. [no-speech] I got to be [noise] conscious of the time. [breath] Today, we take globalization #er #ah of real estate"
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"content" : "as a norm, but twenty-five years ago, in fact, [no-speech] it wasn't common at all. [click] And if you looked at it, there were trickles of [click] cross border transactions, so in #eh and they tend to happen in waves"
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"content" : "between [click] #ah movement, between developed markets. So the British UK company, they were the, the main player in, in the sixties and you [breath] and they in fact invested in Australia."
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"content" : "[noise] But by the late nineteen nineties, all of them had retreated back to the UK. So company like British Land was very early, they went back much earlier, [breath] then MEPC who's no longer in existence"
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"content" : "and #ah Hammerson. [breath] So what was left #ah in the late nineties was Grosvenor Estate, but I understand even they have retreated back. #ah [breath] So"
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"content" : "then we had, in the seventies, we had the Dutch institutions that invested in the US, then they got caught by the big depression in real estate, [breath] they switched to REIT, and in the eighties, we had the Japanese."
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"content" : "So it is was not until the late nineteen nineties, early two thousand [breath] that you see much more [breath] cross border investment from multiple countries, [noise] right? [breath] So that's become much more of a norm."
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"content" : "[lipsmack] [breath] And there are many reasons why this happened. [noise] First of all, as I tried to [noise] say earlier on is the fact that real estate has has become accepted [breath] as a strategic asset class in #ah"
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"content" : "[noise] in an institutional portfolio and that's been tremendous growth in the amount of funds accumulated by institution and there have been increasing allocation to real estate."
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"content" : "[breath] So this real estate money needs to find a home, right? [breath] And institutions therefore are always in search of higher risk adjusted return [breath] and through one of it is through geo~ geographical"
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"content" : "[noise] diversification. That's how ((it works)) [breath] with within an expanding investment universe. [lipsmack] [breath] The result of which we also grew a lot of intermediaries to facilitate this cross border transaction."
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"content" : "So that's h~ how we got to where we are now [breath] with the kind of foreign investments you are seeing. Here, I'm actually only talking about commercial real estate, so large flows of funds, but of course"
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"content" : "the residential real estate has been happening for a long time around [noise] the world. They, [breath] now this is [noise] a chart to show you how much the #ah cross border investment in real estates are happening [breath] that again,"
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"content" : "it kind of dropped off [noise] at GFC and after GFC and it started to come back. It's now peaked. [breath] #ah It's peaked #ah in twenty eighteen [breath] which is slightly higher than the last peak"
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"content" : "in twenty oh seven. [lipsmack] [breath] I'll tell you a bit about GIC. [click] That I #erm, joined GIC in ninety ninety-six but GIC, which is the Sovereign Wealth Fund of Singapore,"
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"content" : "[breath] was one of the earliest to have an allocation to real estate. It started in nineteen eighty-two. [breath] Then they were very lonely and the only place they really went to invest,"
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"content" : "#ah, was in the US because naturally that was the market that was [breath] #ah [no-speech] I guess it has the breadth and depth for institution investor [click] who do, didn't want to take too much risk."
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"content" : "So even though GIC had the mandate to invest globally, almost all the investments were in the United States. It was not until the nineteen late nineteen eighties that it became truly globalized. [breath] So in a sense,"
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"content" : "it was reflecting the change that was happening in the market then, right? [breath] So, and start to invest in across the four quadrants in the,"
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"content" : "from the mid nineteen #ah nineteen nineties onwards. [breath] So [noise] I think that's probably enough about, about the past. So I just wanted to just [noise] perhaps [noise] sum up"
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"content" : "and #ah, [noise] the first part and say that, #erm, in summary, the #erm, [breath] we now have a globalized real estate market, [breath] #erm"
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"content" : "fully integrated with the capital markets in a vastly expanded investment universe. That's what we have at the moment, right? [breath] However, the challenges and opportunities"
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"content" : "in the next forty years unlikely to be very [noise] different from what they were in the past. [breath] I think looking at it, [no-speech] it's quite daunting. But I, I would say also very exciting,"
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"content" : "especially for younger people here. [breath] So what I want to do now is to look at some of the indication of what could happen and what the future might"
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"content" : "hold for the industry?"
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"content" : "So I thought the first item there is a past trend to continue question mark [breath] really is to say that we picked up some of the things that we are now enjoying and expect to be ((knowing)), [breath] would that continue, right?"
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"content" : "And then I want to quickly just cover climate change for completeness, which is a big thing [breath] and then changing demographics was the another big one [breath] and lastly, disruptive technology, really the digital disruption. So those are the areas [breath]"
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"content" : "I want to cover. [noise] [breath] The first thing is [no-speech] #ah under the past trends to continue. [breath] There are four things which I think [breath] are [no-speech] it's important enough to give it"
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"content" : "more consideration and I assume that things would continue the way it was. [breath] First is the question of whether a globalization can continue? [breath] The second one is how is the expanding universe"
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"content" : "#ah likely to repeat itself from the past or what what would the composition be [breath] going forward or is it going to contract? [no-speech] And then we've been enjoying good #ah tremendous growth, investible funds, but"
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"content" : "is there a limit to it? [breath] And then the last point, which I didn't really talk much, but I know it's kind of imp~ #ah implicitly talk about, it is the impact of the system, low interest rates. What does that mean"
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"content" : "for us going forward? [breath] So starting with globalization. [lipsmack] [breath] Now the first thing is that we know that definitely globalization has propelled"
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"content" : "#ah the increase in cross border flows of capital into real estate."
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"content" : "And #erm as I say, most of us have taken this for granted [breath] but if you look at the geopolitics across the globe at the moment, we are seeing a rise in populism,"
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"content" : "in #ah in nationalism, and in protectionism. [breath] So [breath] the [no-speech] and it's certainly threatening to disrupt what we are used to. [click] [breath] The geopolitical issues are not just"
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"content" : "between China and the US of course, that's the big one, but we have Brexit. [breath] We have the problem between Korea and Japan. [breath] We have the EU against the US,"
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"content" : "so a lot of these things, of course we always have a problem with the Middle East [breath] and and #ah and [breath] so that's a lot of destabilizing factors starting to happen. [lipsmack] So one possibly possible consequence of this"
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"content" : "is de-globalization, [breath] if not, it is already happening. [breath] #erm [noise] So for example, would this I mean would this lead to a curtailment and cross border investment going forward?"
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"content" : "Now if you look at what's happening in the US, the organization, which is the equivalent of FIRB, the foreign investment review board of Australia is called ((Cepheus)). [breath] It's been much more active in scrutinizing foreign investment"
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"content" : "and the Chinese investment in US have already dropped significantly in the US. [breath] So the question is that [breath] would [noise] foreign investment therefore, #ah, be not,"
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"content" : "I guess you cannot extrapolate, #ah, foreign investment in real estate the way we had been enjoying in the past years. [breath] Now, [click] don't forget that barriers to foreign investment twenty or thirty years ago"
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"content" : "were quite common, right? Well, it doesn't mean that we are going to revert back to what it we were used to twenty, thirty years ago when I started [noise] in this industry,"
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"content" : "in, in real estate investing across the border. [click] My sense is [click] that some countries will put up the barriers, but there will others that will open up,"
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"content" : "right? So the composition and the problem might change, but I don't think [breath] that it would be shut completely. [noise] [breath] Now, [no-speech] this shift together with other"
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"content" : "demographic and #ah economic factors would change the composition [breath] of the investment universe though. The geography would change, right? [breath] So let's look at the next point is"
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"content" : "the question of whether about expanding investment universe. [click] The first is geography. So in terms of geography, in the last forty years, [noise] #ah, [noise] most of the expansion"
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"content" : "was [noise] in the short markets. [no-speech] However, in in terms of geography, the next phase of expansion is likely to be a shift to Asia"
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"content" : "with rapid urbanization [noise] and a and a growing middle class with growing spending power, [click] that's going to"
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"content" : "it with that means with increasing purchasing power and #ah and and #ah with [breath] it will continue to propel Asian cities [breath] #er both in, in scale, in size and in, in, in quality and improving the quality"
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"content" : "of the real estate products [noise] [lipsmack] [breath] and these cities are going to disproportionately attract investments in infrastructure and real estate compared to the rest of the world. [click]"
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"content" : "[breath] The pool of investment grade assets will also grow as markets mature to meet higher demand for quality. [noise] I would just want to give you a few interesting facts and #ah,"
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"content" : "but before I do that, I want to quote from someone a source that even most Australian here will not know, would know the name, but may would be rather unusual to hear this quote"
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"content" : "in a, in a very, #ah, and at a point in time, which nobody would have thought about this and the quote is, [noise] Asia is going to be the powerhouse of the future."
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"content" : "That was from Harriet Holt, prime minister of Australia in December, nineteen sixty-seven, the day before he drowned."
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"content" : "And he, in nineteen sixty-seven, saw what could happen to Asia. Now I'm not sure if he could be surprised at the speed of which that has changed. [no-speech] So there you are,"
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"content" : "unfortunately, he didn't live to see it. [lipsmack] [breath] So I want to give you some very interesting stats, as I said, #ah #ah looking at Asia. Over the next decade,"
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"content" : "[breath] according to Brooklyn's Institute, [lipsmack] eighty-eight percent of the world's new middle class will be Asian. [noise] [breath] The daily expansion of Asians' new middle class consumers averages about"
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"content" : "three thousand eight hundred [noise] oh no three hundred and eighty-five thousand citizens compared to Europe and North America, which were each at around four thousand."
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"content" : "So three hundred and eighty-five thousand for the four four thousand. [click] [breath] Asians consumer class is growing eight times faster than the rest of the world combined."
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"content" : "By twenty thirty, China and China, India, and Indonesia are likely to account to a forty-three percent [breath] of global consumption with China alone surpassing the US. [click] [breath] Meanwhile,"
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"content" : "the US share of world consumer spending is forecast to shrink from thirteen [noise] percent in twenty fifteen to seven percent by twenty thirty. [click] [breath] Most of the wealth"
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"content" : "generation is happening in cities. The top twenty cities in Asia will be amongst the largest in the world with the fastest growing income. [breath] Now I want to put you in"
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"content" : "some perspective and draw some Australian comparison. [breath] China, India, and Southeast Asia together are now urbanizing at a rate of an Adelaide every ten days,"
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"content" : "a Brisbane every three weeks, or a Sydney over one and a half months. [no-speech] That's the rate of urbanization. [noise] So you can see that in perspective. [breath] So intra-Asia exchanges"
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"content" : "have also sa~ scaled ac~ accelerated accounting for about sixty percent of the trade, #ah global trade, sixty-eight percent of inward FDI"
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"content" : "and #ah seventy-four percent of air traffic. This last statistic surprised me. I hope this is correct, this is not my my number. [breath] #erm [breath] So you can see that more and more of the savings in Asia had been moved"
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"content" : "into Asia in investing, recycled within Asia. [click] Unlike in the past where there are not many investment opportunities, so they tend to go to the matured Western markets. [breath] So that's now happening. [breath] In fact"
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"content" : "#ah, if you look at [noise] some of the most savvy institutional investors, their allocation to Asia has now moved significantly from what it used to be. [breath] They are only limited"
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"content" : "by the investment opportunities available ((by the world)). My definition of Asia includes Australia and New Zealand. [noise] #erm [noise] So"
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"content" : "let me just show you the next, which is kind of the red line show. The intra, #ah, Asia, the break column, #ah, property ten sections, and you can see is way higher than the other two,"
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"content" : "right? [noise] [breath] So ex~ [noise] in terms of expanding in u~ universe, [noise] the other [noise] of course, apart from geography, you have, you have product types [breath] and so what we're seeing that have caused many new"
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"content" : "property asset class now been included, right? #erm Now, for example, student housing is a big deal. Everybody wants a bit of, a bit of it [breath] and that's because it's getting much more competitive"
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"content" : "and new areas, new niches have to be found to be included. So that is expanding in that sense. [breath] And I also think that you will see old asset types in new market. For example,"
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"content" : "#erm, multifamily, #ah, which are rental apartments in the US has been around for a long time. A very established sector that institutional investing. [breath] Now the UK has rebranded it"
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"content" : "it and called it, #erm, [no-speech] build-to-rent as versus buy to let. Basically, it's saying that there's now a huge demand for rental accommodations [noise] and these"
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"content" : "housing are built for rental and, #ah, and partly as a result of demands from the millennials, which are come to later on. [lipsmack] So, [breath] and, but what is probably most, #ah, game changing"
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"content" : "is that real estate bricks-and-mortar company ((have)) invested in areas that are not traditional, real estate investment, [breath] for either for defensive or offensive reasons, [breath] in order to protect their turf."
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"content" : "So for example, [breath] #erm, investing in prop tech and #ah, in, #ah, in other technology related products, which I'll come to when we get to the last point. [breath] So [breath] the next thing,"
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"content" : "#ah, point I want to is there a limit to the growth investible funds? Now of course we know there has been a growing quantum and at [breath] not just the basic spending, [breath] but the allocation has also, the real estate has also grown,"
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"content" : "to give you some numbers as a [breath] a sense of how large the numbers are. [breath] So in twenty eighteen, the amount of investible fund"
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"content" : "in the world, the institutional investment funds, I should say, [lipsmack] [breath] was fifty-five trillion. [breath] It is estimated that this will grow to [noise] a hundred trillion by twenty thirty."
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"content" : "If you think about it, [breath] I know you assume that the ten percent allocation to real estate, so that will be an increase from five point five trillion to ten trillion."
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"content" : "That's a lot of real estate, new real estate to acquire between now and twenty thirty, right? [breath] And [no-speech] so"
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"content" : "the, the, the allocation when, you know, ten fifteen years ago, you'd be lucky to get an average of four five percent. [breath] Now the average is about ten percent and in some cases, [breath] the allocations ((in are)) much higher than that in the real estate."
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"content" : "And again, I should say it is because [breath] the traditional asset classes are just not performing. [no-speech] [lipsmack] [breath] So, [noise] but is there a limit to this? Is this going to continue to grow?"
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"content" : "And I think there might be a limit if you think about it [breath] because that could be [noise] a major write downs in values, and that would trim the accumulated amount of funds [noise] going forward."
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"content" : "#erm, I will explain on this [noise] next next round. [breath] But also the pension funding has, has been based on much higher returns [noise] in the past and you just extrapolate that, of course you're going to get more money."
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"content" : "But I think there's a consensus of view now that the returns going forward are likely to be lower than in the past, right? [noise] So [breath] and the other thing is that much of the growth in savings"
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"content" : "in the past or up until now still is as in Asia in East Asia. Now if these countries started to grow and mature, [breath] they go spend more money in con~ consumption, [breath] less will be available"
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"content" : "in savings, #ah, to be, [noise] #ah, for investments. [noise] So, [noise] and the other thing is public finances will be likely to be increasing pressure for #ah"
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"content" : "demographic reasons when you're facing an aging population, most of these countries are facing an aging population and some are declining population [breath] and also capitalists and expenditure and infrastructure to mitigate [noise] climate change."
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"content" : "So that's going to be [breath] pressure on public finances. [lipsmack] [breath] Now moving to the next topic, which really is talking about the impact of persisting #ah low interest rates. This is"
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"content" : "an unprecedented phenomenon. For a long time now, the world [breath] has been seeing very low interest rates, [breath] which really means that use income use or in the industry, we call cap rate"
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"content" : "had been compressed, right? Which means value has been going up and by his~ historical stand~ standard would say that prices are very expensive [no-speech] across asset classes and not just"
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"content" : "real estate. [lipsmack] [breath] Now, there are plenty of cheap money that has been piling up, rising from, you know, it it was one hundred and seventy billion or in in percentage term term,"
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"content" : "two hundred and twenty-eight percent [noise] of GDP at the peak pre- GFC. It's now exceeded that. [breath] It is now globally two hundred and forty-eight [noise] trillion"
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"content" : "or [no-speech] three hundred and nineteen percent of global GDP. So it's a lot more now, [breath] and that's because of cheap money,"
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"content" : "and and plenty of it, abundance liquidity. So many of us, including myself in saying for a long time that [breath] rates have to return to normal, but if anything it's still going south"
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"content" : "and if the central banks around the world are now bracing for global recession. So rates are unlikely to move up, at least in the short to medium term."
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"content" : "[breath] In fact, #ah, a fifth, a fifth of all government bonds globally [no-speech] [noise] are [noise] producing zero or negative in~ #ah interest."
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"content" : "That's the new world that we are dealing with. [breath] So this persistently low interest rate environment has tremendous implications for investment [noise] #ah strategies."
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"content" : "It's really very difficult time, and I used to joke with my colleagues at GIC and said that [breath] I'm glad I don't have the responsibility to deploy capital anymore."
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"content" : "It is a tough decision to, a lot of tough decisions that you have to call, right?"
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"content" : "Now where and what assets are you going to invest in an environment like that when you know that things look very expensive, and you can't hold cash, because interest rates are so low, right? [breath] #erm"
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"content" : "So and, and even you want to sell, at what prices are you selling? If you hold, would it hold? How long could you hold? [breath] So if [no-speech] the, the question that (()) state in my mind is"
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"content" : "now that we're seeing low interest rate for so long, in fact for forty years, of course the interest rate goes to different cycle. [breath] But each peak and trough was lower than the last one for the last forty years"
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"content" : "in real and nominal term. So that seems to be a secular trend. So is this going to continue? If so, it is really very important because a small change in income yield"
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"content" : "has a huge impact on your value, especially when your yields are low. Right? So that,"
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"content" : "but any, but on the other hand, if you decipher that this is going to continue, this is structural. [breath] What if we are hit by really hit by a recession, there's a collapse on the demand side and the #ah,"
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"content" : "and therefore a fall in value. What is worth is if you should then expand because there's a fall off in demand for investment, then you get a double whammy."
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"content" : "So that's the the current problem for a lot of investments, #ah, [breath] institutional investor. [noise]"
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"content" : "[noise] I #ah think that's now been a rethink in #ah, in in the investment world about how you assess different asset classes. [no-speech] [noise] For example, [noise]"
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"content" : "in the past, [click] it's a [no-speech] you look at ((different investments)), say this is real estate, so it's called this risks, right? And so therefore you need a higher rate of return. Bonds got much lower risk, so lower rate of return, so on."
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"content" : "They each have their risk-return characteristics. [breath] But then if you blind fold someone and say, I give you all these returns and their risk characteristics, [no-speech] and if you think like that, why wouldn't a prime office building with"
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"content" : "very good long tenancy [no-speech] and getting a six percent return [noise] not be bond ((line))? [no-speech] And that's the thinking you have to do now because otherwise [breath] you will say,"
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"content" : "my hurdle rate is eight percent. This investment is only getting me, will be getting me only six percent, it's a sell prop~ proposition. Okay, I'd sell it."
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"content" : "What are you going to do with the money? You put it in bonds, it gets you, you're lucky to get one percent. So that's the kind of thing you have to think about. [breath] And that's the change of thinking beginning to happen [breath] in the #ah, in the institution investment world."
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"content" : "I'm running short of time. I know climate change, I won't say very much ((is chart)) just simply show you [breath] #ah what are the risks and what are the potential impact, [breath] and the next chart"
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"content" : "say- show you how you get to cope with climate change. A lot has been written [breath] and talked about. I don't think I can add very much to it. [breath] I just want to say that [no-speech] tackling climate change,"
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"content" : "it imposes a huge cost both on governments and as well as individual owners. [noise] The problem is that you can't see the payoffs for a long, long time. So it's a really hard decision to make and say whether you spend the money,"
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"content" : "even if you know that this is a sure thing. But there will be some skeptics to say it may not happen. So why spend the money? [breath] To give you an example, the Singapore government had just spent, decided to spend ten million dollars [breath] to study"
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"content" : "rising sea level, so a much more robust study so that they can help them make some decisions like what to invest [breath] for a ((start)). As you know that Singapore is extending Changi airport."
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"content" : "[breath] So the future proved it has decided to raise it by five meters, the ground by five meters. So that kind of thing has to happen in those cities [breath] that are more prepared, obviously are going to be relatively better off"
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"content" : "than other cities and so as individual assets. [breath] So that's all I want to say about climate change. [breath] #erm [click] Then on the, on demographics, I think there are two groups that have the most impact"
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"content" : "on real estate, one is the aging population and the next is millennials. [breath] Looking at the aging stats first [noise] and you can see that already, you know, the more than sixty-five"
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"content" : "globally is outnumbered children under five years old. [no-speech] That is a fact. [no-speech] That's happened [breath] and by twenty fifty, one in six people in the world will be over sixty-five"
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"content" : "and then the greater than eigh~ older than eighty years old will triple. [no-speech] What are the challenges of it? I mean there are challenges and the opportunities, right? [breath] Now of course"
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"content" : "an aging society is going to have imbalances [breath] and the elderly is probably occupying too much space. They don't need so much space. So what do you do with it? And and #erm, you got this, that's a, [breath] a lot of mismatch ((even like)) in housing needs,"
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"content" : "virtual actual housing. In an extreme case like Japan, for example, when they have an absolute decline in population, [breath] they have now been experiencing an increasing number of unoccupied buildings."
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"content" : "I have [no-speech] some stats here which [dtmf] says that it's now about eleven percent of the stock unoccupied throughout Japan because of [noise] this aging process."
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"content" : "Now of course a lot of housing types have been (()) for seniors and we've dropped some of them here in Australia. [breath] Now in a, in the landlocked, I know we'll get to this, landscape Island like Singapore,"
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"content" : "we have come out with solution like the kampung admiralty kampung simply means village [breath] and this is a product where they have ev~"
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"content" : "smaller flats and the, I think you could see from there, sitting on a podium, right? So these are thirty [click] year leases. [noise]"
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"content" : "Thus the elderly can sell whatever they own and move to a thirty year lease, smaller apartment and live there and on the podium, [breath] it's a, this will I will have the spec here, (())"
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"content" : "two storey medical centres who provide health service in the podium. [breath] It's, it's #erm, it's got childcare centre and retail outlets. The child care centre is really a great concept because this is to encourage intergenerational,"
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"content" : "#erm, #erm, interaction ((because)) moms can drop the kids off at the grand~ grandpa and grandma and they they have children playgrounds [breath] grounds and centres and so on and there are restaurants and they,"
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"content" : "they also generate community activities. So this is one way [breath] and and in Holland, for example, this is the car, what you call care home experiments, [breath] where students, students are usually broke. [no-speech] So"
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"content" : "this is a way in which students get to stay with elderly for free and their only job is to interact with them, right? And because loneliness is one of the serious"
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"content" : "problem amongst the elderly. I~ I'm just rushing through this. The millennials now, as you can see on this chart, the red one, they are the biggest generational cohort in the world going forward in the next thirty years."
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"content" : "While the baby boomer, which is the, the #erm, blue line, people like me and some of my older friends here, we are a declining species. So the millennials are going to determining"
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"content" : "everything, a a lot of things that built environment, the determining where and what to live, work and play, right? So they are very significant [breath] and their characteristics are very different [noise] from even from the Gen X"
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"content" : "because they tend to delay major life events like marriage and child bearing. [breath] They're changing locational preference and attitudes towards home ownership, it's very different. They don't want, not many of them care about home ownership."
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"content" : "They want to live in the city, city centres [breath] and goes always places that are most expensive and least affordable. [lipsmack] [breath] But a lot of corporations are also moving [noise] to the city centres."
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"content" : "At one stage, they were going to the have been going to the suburbs because of the competition for talent. They accommodate millennials and you see this happening a great deal now in American cities. [no-speech] [breath] So,"
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"content" : "disruptive technology. I think this is the biggest change that's going to happen that I think the magnitude of technological disruption is much more far reaching [noise] than anything in the past"
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"content" : "and affecting all sectors of real estates [breath] as we know them today. [lipsmack] [breath] We are probably only at the beginning of some transform transformative changes"
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"content" : "to the way the [noise] industry operates. [noise] Now this, I have some, we have some difficulty classifying them. So if I could just run through it #erm quickly, [breath] we have the sharing economy is really,"
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"content" : "it's a situation where the new technology is challenging traditional relation~ relationship [breath] between owner and users, whether it's AirBNB you know, Uber, co-working or co-living"
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"content" : "and we see this happening now for quite a few years. [breath] Then the prop tech is now the new-new thing, threatening the way the industry has been operating. I think one serious challenge is disintermediation,"
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"content" : "right? Where it is going to disrupt traditional brokerage services. [noise] #erm [noise] And the [click] tokenization, for example, [breath] if it happens, has the potential of simplifying"
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"content" : "and reducing the cost of property transactions. [noise] Big data and data analytics and AI machine learning I mentioned before is also going to, are going to challenge professional services [noise] such as"
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"content" : "whether they are valuers, lawyers, [breath] accountants, and engineers. The and US just develop this, this #ah, what they call the automatic value, #erm, mo- model and with a lot of"
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"content" : "#ah data. I was going to show this. I don't think we have time, [noise] to get to about four degree of error margin to do valuation of condominiums. So,"
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"content" : "but of course at the moment it's still not acceptable because there's no human being sign off like a valuer that's qualified and licensed in every jurisdiction. [breath] But over time, this is going to happen."
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"content" : "But it is not just valuers, even lawyers. #ah You don't need a whole lot of lawyers that do case research, the computer can do it better. [lipsmack] [breath] So those kinds of things is going to happen"
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"content" : "that the IOT, the internet of things with AI machine learning [breath] are also going to improve efficiency and have an also optimization really is to do [click] more with less."
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"content" : "So that's the kind of thing happening. Now I am not the right person to go into the technical details, but I thought [breath] I'd share with you [breath] [click] one or two things about how the market has been responding to these challenges."
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"content" : "And ask the question, how are real estate corporates currently responding to the digital trend [breath] and how has the market been adjusting to specific disruptions, which have already been challenging"
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"content" : "the traditional models for a good number of years, right? [breath] And I won't go into a lot of detail. Hopefully, this will give us some indication of how going forward the market and the players are going to cope"
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"content" : "with digital disruption. [noise] So [breath] [click] starting with corporates #erm"
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"content" : "we know that bricks-and-mortar companies, corporates are not the quickest in adapting to new technology, right? [breath] And that [noise] [click] [breath] not coincidentally the three"
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"content" : "bricks-and-mortar company that I've been associated with [breath] in recent, last year ((in favor)) all decided, I (()) I can assure you they didn't consult each other to hire a chief technology officer."
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"content" : "Now, this is just an indication of how seriously bricks-and-mortar company is taking on, #erm, the challenges that are posed by technology. [noise] So"
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"content" : "the, I want to give you an example of how the things have been happening that the bricks-and-mortar company is investing in technology [breath] to protect themselves. They no longer look at"
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"content" : "real estate if you are an asset owner that you are just selling space and the like, right? Renting space, [no-speech] that's only one solution. Now they have to whole, look at the whole ecosystem"
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"content" : "and provide solutions, a whole range of solutions in order to retain [lipsmack] their customers or their tenants. [breath] So I want to give you an example of the things that this company that I'm associated with has been doing. [breath] It's called GLP,"
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"content" : "Global Logistics Properties. It was a public company listed in Singapore, was taken private [noise] about two years ago [breath] and it is arguably the second largest manager"
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"content" : "of logistic warehouse space in the world with seventy-five million square meters of space. Okay? That's the kind of thing they are doing. [breath] So as I say, [breath] they no longer look at themselves as a landlord"
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"content" : "but more as as to provide a whole range of solution for the customers. So what have they done? [lipsmack] And warehousing is only one [noise] solution in Singapore, [noise] so what have they done?"
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"content" : "They invested in robotics. Why? Because modern warehousing needs some kind of automation. [click] They have invested in live tracking of trucks. This is very important not to help their customers to ensure"
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"content" : "not only safety records and but drivers #ah driver's behavior as well. [breath] Smart gate so that before the trucks arrive, you know when to load, unload and prepare for it. Like when we arrive at the airport."
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"content" : "And #erm, also technology, which can compete with Amazon, for example, to help [breath] retailers get goods to customer within two days, like Amazon prime."
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"content" : "They are experimenting with flexible warehouse space, which #erm, #ah, with lots of data storage, I mean, sorry, #erm, with #erm, [lipsmack] [breath] #erm, versus traditional leasing like"
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"content" : "co-working, right? [breath] And they're investing heavily in data centres. Such data centres, if you think about it, [breath] the bricks-and-mortar is the same. It's the warehouse, it's the equipment and the data, that's different. [breath] So now"
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"content" : "[lipsmack] [breath] I have no time to go into specifically. I wanted to talk a little bit about, show you about what's happening in the co-working and E commerce. [breath] But suffice to say that those things have been round for a while, starting to unravel and that"
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"content" : "in the co-working space, the landlords are now realizing that this is no longer a passing trend, [breath] but in reality providing flexible space. So they are fighting back against the third party service provider,"
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"content" : "like WeWork, for example. And the WeWork model as we can see is starting to unravel when they failed to IPO, right? So this is how the market's (()), in fact, in New York,"
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"content" : "I know for a fact that the the big landlords are getting together [breath] to talk about how to set up flexible space for their customers and work together [breath] and not lose that to third party [noise] operators."
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"content" : "and the demand is going to grow. [breath] This is an entirely new topic, which I can leave it to the next speaker. Thank you. [applause]"
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